Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.044430 0.050214 0.056644 0.064351 0.073380 0.083673 0.096366
2026-02-01 0.034295 0.041169 0.049402 0.060088 0.073743 0.090809 0.114076
2026-02-08 0.028569 0.036146 0.045837 0.059363 0.078105 0.103704 0.142291
2026-02-15 0.024237 0.032138 0.042867 0.058881 0.082856 0.118587 0.178255
2026-02-22 0.021073 0.029181 0.040823 0.059353 0.089285 0.138014 0.228625
2026-03-01 0.018459 0.026590 0.038879 0.059656 0.095769 0.159950 0.293309
2026-03-08 0.015948 0.023767 0.036127 0.058180 0.099157 0.178229 0.361308
2026-03-15 0.013435 0.020581 0.032294 0.054146 0.097109 0.186148 0.413383
2026-03-22 0.012049 0.019020 0.030915 0.054242 0.103167 0.213429 0.530262
2026-03-29 0.011047 0.017961 0.030239 0.055562 0.112336 0.252203 0.710621
2026-04-05 0.010036 0.016744 0.029083 0.055712 0.119180 0.289257 0.924038
2026-04-12 0.009129 0.015593 0.027874 0.055518 0.125344 0.328461 1.194060
2026-04-19 0.008194 0.014290 0.026206 0.054068 0.128293 0.361550 1.494272
2026-04-26 0.007290 0.012935 0.024238 0.051532 0.127671 0.383877 1.787570
2026-05-03 0.006734 0.012195 0.023446 0.051689 0.135034 0.440617 2.402677
2026-05-10 0.006249 0.011537 0.022733 0.051910 0.142915 0.506870 3.276107
2026-05-17 0.005867 0.011046 0.022317 0.052845 0.153751 0.597005 4.695168
2026-05-24 0.005511 0.010564 0.021850 0.053551 0.164358 0.698645 6.773509
2026-05-31 0.005097 0.009910 0.020882 0.052615 0.168704 0.773961 9.054048
2026-06-07 0.004599 0.009022 0.019234 0.049317 0.162614 0.784171 10.436757
2026-06-14 0.004341 0.008642 0.018790 0.049629 0.171724 0.904290 15.314179
2026-06-21 0.004156 0.008410 0.018683 0.051005 0.186398 1.088153 25.034427
2026-06-28 0.003938 0.008077 0.018272 0.051300 0.196531 1.257870 39.021658